As the Year of the Dragon comes to a close and we welcome the yearof the Snake, population trends continue their concerning decline.
The Chinese zodiac holds tremendous importance across the sinosphere. Each year heralds the arrival of a new sign, with its own element (water, metal, wood, fire and earth) and harmony (Yin or Yang). Among these, certains combinations and signs are considered more auspicious than others, and have historically seen higher birth and marriage rates.
Chief among them, the dragon. Representing power, luck, honor, nobility and succes, it's is the fifth animal in the zodiac cycle and considered particularly auspicious. In past years, wedding halls and gold sellers have reported an increase in business before and during dragon years as couples hurry to get married and have "dragon babies".
This historic population trend appears to be coming to an end. In 2024, birth and marriage rates across Vietnam fell to historic lows. The birth rate hit 1.91 children per woman, well below the national replacement rate of 2.1. Marriage age meanwhile climbed to 27.2 for both sexes, a two-year increase compared to 2019.
The previous year of the dragon, 2012, saw the birthrate increase by 0.03 child per woman. In 2024, no such bump was recorded, with the birthrate falling to 1.91 from 1.96 the previous year.
In the Southeast Region, home to Ho Chi Minh City, Binh Duong and Dong Nai provinces, figures are even lower. Among the most urbanized localities in the country, the average marriage age is over 3 years higher than the national average, at 30.4 years. The birthrate meanwhile, is the lowest in the country, at 1.47 children per woman.
According to experts, many factors are in play, with the rising cost of living chief among them. Post-COVID inflation has taken a toll on prices, particularly in urban areas like HCMC. Added to this are the plentiful job opportunities, encouraging people (particularly an increasing amount of women) to pursue careers instead of early marriage and familial life.
Locally, this has resulted in an aging population. HCMC in particular is in a difficult situation. It is currently the oldest city in Vietnam, with 12.05% of its population being 60 or older. An aging population results in a down-sizing of the labour force, with less people available to work. Furthermore, the growing amount of retirees adds financial pressure in the form of rising welfare and social costs.
The National Assembly and the Ministry of Health are currently considering a reform to the long-standing Ordinance on Population. The 2-child-per-couple limit has resulted in a decline in birthrate since its implementation in 1988. While legislation is as of yet unchanged, there have been proposals to lift the limit and invest more into family planning programs.
Despite concerns over an aging population, Vietnam is still in a phase of population growth. While the rate of this growth has slowed considerably since the turn of the millenium, it is far from the population decline being experienced by China and Japan.